Lesson 13 The search for oil

The geologist needs to know what rocks the drill has reached,

地質學家需要知道鉆頭已經到達什么樣的巖層，

Lesson 13 The search for oil

so every so often a sample is obtained with a coring bit.

因此時常要用取芯鉆頭取樣。

Lesson 13 The search for oil

It cuts a clean cylinder of rock,

這種鉆頭能切割一段光滑的圓柱形巖石，

Lesson 13 The search for oil

from which can be seen the strata the drill has been cutting through.

從中能看出鉆頭所鉆透的地層。

Lesson 13 The search for oil

Once we get down to the oil, it usually flows to the surface because great pressure,

一旦到達油層，石油就會由于地下巨大的壓力流到地面上來，

Lesson 13 The search for oil

either from gas or water, is pushing it.

這種巨大的壓力來自地下天然氣或水。

Lesson 13 The search for oil

This pressure must be under control,

這種壓力必須加以控制，

Lesson 13 The search for oil

and we control it by means of the mud which we circulate down the drill pipe.

我們讓泥漿順著鉆桿向下循環，用這種方法來控制壓力。

Lesson 13 The search for oil

We endeavour to avoid the old, romantic idea of a gusher, which wastes oil and gas.

我們盡量避免使用陳舊天真的噴井方法，那樣會浪費石油和天然氣。

Lesson 13 The search for oil

We want it to stay down the hole until we can lead it off in a controlled manner.

我們要讓石油留在井下，直到我們能用一種有控制的方法把它引上來為止。

Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect

Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative,

世界上最好的兩三天以上的天氣預報具有很強的猜測性，

Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect

and beyond six or seven they are worthless.

如果超過六七天，天氣預報就沒有了任何價值。

Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect

The Butterfly Effect is the reason.

原因是蝴蝶效應。

Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect

For small pieces of weather -- and to a global forecaster,

對于小片的惡劣天氣--對一個全球性的氣象預報員來說，

Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect

small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards -- any prediction deteriorates rapidly.

小"可以意味著雷暴雨和暴風雪--任何預測的質量會很快下降。

Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect

Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features,

錯誤和不可靠性上升，接踵而來的是一系列湍流的微狀，

Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect

from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see.

從小塵暴和暴風發展到只有衛星上可以看到的席卷整塊大陸的旋渦。

Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect

The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart,

現代氣象模型以一個坐標圖來顯示，圖中每個點大約是間隔60英里。

Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect

and even so, some starting data has to guessed,

既使是這樣，有些開始時的資料也不得不依靠推測，

Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect

since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere.

因為地面工作站和衛星不可能看到地球上的每一個地方。

Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect

But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart,

假設地球上可以布滿傳感器，每個相隔1英尺，

Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect

rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere.

并按1英尺的間隔從地面一直排列到大氣層的頂端。

Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect

Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature,

再假定每個傳感器都極端準確地讀出了溫度、

Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect

pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want.

氣壓、濕度和氣象學家需要的任何其他數據。

Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect

Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12.01, then 1202, then 12.03.

在正午時分，一個功能巨大的計算機搜集了所有的資料，并算出在每一個點上 12∶01、12∶02、12∶03時可能出現的情況。

Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect

The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton,New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away.

計算機無法推斷出1個月以后的某一天，新澤西州的普林斯頓究竟是晴天還是雨天。

Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect

At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average.

正午時分，傳感器之間的距離會掩蓋計算機無法知道的波動、任何偏離平均值的變化。

Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect

By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away.

到12∶01時，那些波動就已經會在1英尺遠的地方造成偏差。

Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect

Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale,

很快這種偏差會增加到10 英尺的范圍，

Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect

and so on up to the size of the globe.

如此等等，一直到全球的范圍。